The Big Dilemma

On Thursday evening, Eastern Time, President Barack Obama announced his executive orders surrounding the issue of Immigration reform. According to Robert Longley, writing at usgovinfo.com, an executive order can be defined “as a directive issued to federal agencies, department heads, or other federal employees by the President of the United States under his statutory or constitutional powers”. Essentially, these orders are extremely important for two reasons; firstly, for a bill to pass through Congess it must achieve a majority in both chambers; the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, realistically, given the culture of Filibustering which has emerged due to the partizan nature of American Politics currently, a bill must achieve a 2/3rd majority in both chambers to achieve the ‘stop filibustering’ threshold. This emergence of filibustering, which is essentially when a Congressman, from either party, stands up and debates endlessly in order to stop a bill being voted on has resulted in both parties becoming very difficult to work with. The Hill, D.C, and America overall has become increasingly partizan over the last few decades, but especially since the Presidential Election in 2008 and then again in 2012. 

President Barack Obama 

Now that the context is understood, it is important to examine the importance and the potential impact of the executive orders President Obama announced. In my opinion, the most significant impact that the executive orders will have on the US political chess board is not actually to do with the level of immigrants, or indeed the process these immigrants must take to acquire work permits. Indeed, the importance lies with the reaction of the Republican Party. The midterm elections in 2014 proved several things. Firstly, that the stagnant economy, especially notable in the middle regions of America has caused a ‘bitterness’ towards President Obama and the Democrats. Low interest rates have caused the US stock exchange to pull upwards and more importantly high levels of quantitative easing (a process where the government buys corporate bonds in order to stimulate money supply for aggregate demand economic growth) has caused asset prices to increase. The latter of these two impacts is far more damaging for the Democrats. The middle class population that President Obama pledged to fight for - are becoming relatively poorer as a result of his economic policies. It is worth noting however that it is not a unique policy. Japan, an economy which experimented extensively with quantitative easing and low interest rates recently slipped into recession. In fact, it could very much be argued that an introduction of quantitative easing is needed in Germany, but given their psychological issues with inflation (rightly) Q.E for the time being is off the table. Therefore, it is not the fault of Barack Obama that the economy in America has stagnated. Indeed, although not technically in a recession, 80% of Americans still ‘feel’ as if they are living in a recession. Secondly, the midterm elections rubber stamped the premise that demographics are becoming increasingly important. Statistics surrounding the 2014 election are fascinating and also explain how crucial the Republican Party’s reaction to immigration orders will be. The GOP (Republicans), typically, attract a large proportion of the ‘anglo’ vote in the US. Indeed the ‘anglo’ vote in Iowa constitutes 89% of the voting population, in West Virginia the anglo vote is 93%, in Colorado, 80% of voters are white and in Kentucky a mere 11% are non white voters. The Republican party were successful in all of these states in the mid term elections. This is not either a new trend or a surprising fact. As I said, the traditional values of the Republican Party, pro free markets, anti-choice, pro-guns etc. sit well with the anglo voters. Likewise, the Hisapnic, or Latino voters tend to vote Democrat. In the 2012 election, it could be argued that Florida, the most significant of the swing states, purely in terms of its 29 electoral college votes, swung Democrat because of its large hispanic population. Indeed in 2012 President Obama won 93% of the African American vote and 71% of the hispanic vote, compared to Mitt Romneys’s 59% White vote. 

House Speaker Boehner (R)

The above statistics are crucial in understanding the importance of immigration reform. Now, the Republicans are stuck. The 2016 Presidential Election and the door to the White House is not far away, and the Republicans must appease the ethnic vote in the US in order to boost their chances of a win. The puzzle for the Republicans is this though. By embracing President Obama’s Immigration orders; they are abandoning their traditional values. It is worth noting that a Democrat led Senate passed Obama’s immigration bill last year, but a Republican House of Representatives, led by speaker John Boehner (not a joke) refused to debate the bill. For anyone who doesn't know how bills are passed; the debate process comes first. The chances of the Republicans embracing Obamas orders are slim; Boehner announced today that he believed Obama acted like a ‘king or emperor’. Whilst, Mitt Romney warned that Obama was ‘poking the eyes of Republican leaders’. However, the consequences of not supporting immigration reform are devastating. The latin vote is not going away and if anything is becoming even more important. In 2006 the hispanic vote constituted for 8.6% of the eligible voting population, in 2010 it was worth 10.1% and in 2014 it contributed to 11% of the electorate. With the Republican Party as fragmented as ever, the Tea Party continuing to assert influence and the population of moderate Republicans dying out - the need to attract hispanic voters is as important as ever, and possibly the difference between a successful 2016 campaign and a defeat. The early signs do suggest a change in Republican attitudes since 2012. In Texas, 44% of the Hispanic vote went with Republican congressmen, and in Florida a Republican governor was elected, Rick Scott. It will be fascinating to see how the Republicans respond to Obamas orders and whether or not they choose to back the President or risk losing the hispanic population, and as a result, the Presidential Election in 2016.

Capitol Hill